Where are the Gulf Arab states in the fight against ISIL?

I’m a regular viewer of the The Daily Show with Jon Stewart. I like the show because in spite of being a comedy he often has cutting and accurate commentary on the news of the day. I had to disagree with his monologue tonight though. He went to great pains to criticize Saudi Arabia for not being supportive enough of the United States’ fight against ISIL. I think this is misguided.

While I understand Stewart’s aggravation with Saudi Arabia, as they seem to play every side, Saudi Arabia can’t do much more than the commitment they made to run training camps for Syrian rebels fighting ISIL. Although, I suppose they could punish Saudis who financially supported ISIL.

Beyond Saudi Arabia’s lack of support Stewart was ‘distressed’  by the fact everyone militarily supporting the American fight against ISIL are supposedly Christian states. This causes the fight against ISIL to look like a crusade. Yes, on second thought, that does look bad and is a radical Islamic propagandists dream.

The problem is, if you suck Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait and other Gulf Arab states militarily into the conflict you risk sucking Iran into the conflict. I admit this is a distant possibility but it’s a real one.

If bringing Sunni Arab states into the mix is unlikely because they all hate Bashar al-Assad, Iran and Iraqi Shiite then what about Turkey? Surely, Turkey doesn’t want a bunch of foaming-at-the-mouth types on their border? No, they probably don’t but ISIL could do an effective job of slaughtering the Kurds for them if they got strong enough.

I suppose what it boils down to is most surrounding states have powerful reasons to both support and destroy ISIL. Their strategy, much like Obama until yesterday, is to wait and see and be as ambivalent as possible.

Barack Obama chooses bad instead of worse in Iraq

U.S. President Barack Obama will be speaking in an hour. Apparently, he has formulated a plan for dealing with ISIS. That plan will, if the talking heads on CNN are to be believed, include arming rebels in Syria and bombing the hell out of the Islamic State’s positions in Iraq and Syria. Obama has been forced to choose between bad and worse.

I still maintain, as I did in my first post about ISIS, that getting involved in this conflict is a bad option. There are so many tribal, ethnic, religious and political vagaries involved that your ally today will be your enemy tomorrow and may in fact be your enemy today. Beyond that, you can’t beat an idea (the caliphate) and an ideology (militant Islam) with bombs even if you need to bomb threats.

I’m watching CNN right now and General Wesley Clark said the U.S. needs to get Sunni Arab troops in the region to fight ISIS. On the face of it, that makes sense. If you have Sunni Arab troops in a Sunni Arab region of Iraq you’re more likely to undermine local support for ISIS, which is made up of primarily Sunni Arabs, as the ‘occupiers’ would be culturally, ethnically and religiously like the ‘occupied’.

The problem is, at least from my vantage point, that neighbouring Sunni Arab states like Jordan or Saudi Arabia want to get involved like they want a bowl of toe juice for breakfast. They want to stay out of it for a variety of reasons.

1. The monarchies don’t want to become any more of a target than they already are among religious radicals.
2. There’s  a strong element of support for ISIS in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, etc. In fact, ISIS has received financial support from wealthy Arabs in the region.
3. While Shiite Iranians may not like Sunni Arab extremists they wouldn’t be comfortable with Saudi troops in Iraq to say the least as they’re major competitors. Of course, it’s not like Iran and the U.S. get along, but Saudis or other Sunnis in Iraq could cause complications down the road.

I may very well be wrong. Maybe Saudi Arabia, Jordan, etc. will leap at the possibility of getting sucked into what is, effectively, a regional war. After all, it doesn’t take a great leap of logic to see the regional war coming to their doorsteps if they attempt to avoid it.

 

 

 

 

The enemy of the Islamic State is America’s enemy

Barack Obama has been heavily criticized for acknowledging he hasn’t developed a strategy to deal with Syria, Iraq and ISIS. I suppose this supports the idea that honesty is never the best policy. The way I see it Obama’s lack of a plan is a statement on the obvious. There isn’t a good long term military option for dealing with ISIS and there aren’t a lot of ‘political options’ either. The war with ISIS is a war of ideas. Short of genocidal annihilation, and I’m not advocating it, you can beat an idea with guns.

ISIS is a combination of former Saddam Hussein supporters, rebel Syrian Sunni Arabs and internationally recruited Muslims intent on creating a caliphate. ISIS is a particular threat to western countries for three reasons. (1) Many westerners, from traditional and non-traditional Muslim groups, have been recruited into the fight. (2) It controls a large swath of territory that threatens to border Europe. (3) They appear to be ideologically driven rather than pragmatic. They really want to, however unrealistic, build the caliphate.

 

While ISIS is an enemy of western countries, the enemies of ISIS are also American enemies. The Syrian regime, who are aligned with Iran and Russia, are an enemy. Iran is an enemy. The Kurds, while seemingly allied with western interests, are arch enemies of NATO member Turkey, Syria, Iran and ultimately Iraqi Shiite as well. It’s true the Kurds have lived relatively peacefully since Saddam was overthrown, but they still have the stated goal of carving Kurdistan out of Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran.

Saying you don’t have a plan is really bad politics and communications, but it’s a perfectly understandable reaction. What side do the Americans come down on? In the absence of a democratic and pluralistic Iraqi coalition or an effective Iraqi Shiite military not getting into bed with Iran, the enemy of the American’s enemy isn’t their friend. Why would Obama sprint to get sucked into a conflict that few others want to get involved in? His options are bad and worse. At some point he may be forced to choose between bad and worse as the Islamic State slaughtering their way to Turkey’s border is in no one’s interest.